Managing Global Transitions

Agricultural-Induced Environmental Kuznets Curve for South Africa: A Threshold Regression and ARIMA Forecasting Approach

Andrew Phiri — 2025-12-30

The purpose of the paper is to examine the impact of the agricultural sector on agricultural emissions in South Africa. To this end, we estimate an agricultural-induced environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for South Africa between 1990 and 2022 using conventional and threshold regression frameworks. Our regression estimates reveal a ‘humped-shaped’ relationship between agricultural production and agricultural emissions, whereby agricultural production produces lower agricultural emissions above threshold estimates of 4,876 and 6,100 metric tons of CO2 emissions. Further investigations show that the South African economy has consistently remained above these thresholds since 2010. Moreover, a forecast analysis of the time series using ARIMA models shows that agricultural production
is (emissions are) on an upward (a downward) trajectory. However, the forecasting analysis also shows that the South African agricultural sector is not scheduled to reach the net-zero emissions target by 2050. Altogether, these findings imply that whilst South Africa had followed a trajectory of sustainable development prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the current trajectory may not be sufficient to attain the 2050 Sustainable Development Goals.

Shaping Stability: Can the Finance-Growth Nexus Achieve It?

Ahmed Mahmoudi — 2025-12-30

This paper assesses the tripartite link between a country’s financial (in) stability, its level of financial development, and economic growth. Using a panel of 21 countries over the period 2001–2020 and using the IMF Financial Market Index to proxy financial development, we find (i) that financial stability varies positively with the development of the financial system, and (ii) that the relationship between financial stability and economic growth depends critically on the level of financial development of each country. These results show that in the absence of financial development, the impact of economic growth on financial (in)stability will have
different effects. In addition, we performed a subsample analysis by dividing the overall sample into two subsamples based on stability levels. We find that financial development enhances stability more in the more stable subsample, while growth does so in the less stable subsample.

Information and Communications Technology and Financial Development as Catalysts for Gender Equality in Brazil’s Agricultural Sector

Freiderick Yohanna Letong — 2025-12-30

In this study, we examined the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) and financial development on mitigating gender inequality in Brazil, using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approaches, between 1991 and 2022. The ARDL bounds test was employed to find the presence of co-integration within the series of data. Both in the short run and the long run, financial development has a significant negative impact on gender disparity; this means that policies aimed at enhancing women’s financial and consumption services should be promoted in the short run. In the long run, we can conclude that ICT developments lead to a decrease
in gender inequalities, which may imply the need for strategic, long-term planning to increase ICT infrastructure, especially in deprived areas. This includes subsidising affordable internet, skills training for women in the ICT field, and promoting women’s participation in the technology industry. In addition, the impact of optimal financial development varies over time; hence, there is a need for flexibility and sustainability in financial development. Policy makers should therefore continue to strengthen and enhance financial inclusion initiatives, as well as regularly follow up on the impact of these initiatives on gender equality.

Regional Disparities in Health-Seeking Behaviour in Nigeria: Evidence from the World Bank General Household Survey

Uche Abamba Osakede — 2025-12-30

Regional disparities in socioeconomic factors shape health-seeking behaviour (HSB). This study examined HSB across Northern and Southern Nigeria and the role of socioeconomic factors on HSB. Data was drawn from Wave 4 of the 2018/2019 post-harvest General Household Survey of approximately 5,000 households. Logistic regression and Chi-square (χ2) tests were applied. Findings show that health care is predominantly sought from private providers, especially in the South. No significant regional difference was found between formal and informal care use. Older adults rely on informal care providers such as traditional healers and faith-based centres. Household income significantly influences provider choice, while gender matters mainly in the North, where women utilise public more than private facilities. Longer distances and waiting times increase the likelihood of public facility use, and severe illness drives reliance on public providers. Policy should improve formal health care access for older
adults, strengthen public facilities to manage severe illnesses and women’s health, especially in the North, and tighten oversight of private providers, particularly in the South, to ensure quality health care.