Education and Youth Unemployment in South Africa after COVID-19: Evidence from the General Household Survey (GHS)

Abstract

Youth unemployment remains a major challenge in South Africa, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further disrupted education and labour-market transitions. This study investigates how educational attainment influences youth unemployment in the post-COVID period using the nationally representative 2021 General Household Survey. A sample of 3,652 youths was analysed using logit and probit models across three specifications that incorporate education, demographic factors, and household welfare characteristics. The results show that higher education significantly reduces the likelihood of unemployment, with the strongest effects for diploma and degree holders. However, these effects vary across provinces. Youth in Free State, Northwest, and Limpopo experience high unemployment even with higher qualifications, indicating weak regional labour markets. A sensitivity analysis reveals that returns to education are lower in mining-dependent provinces. The study concludes that expanding education
alone is insufficient without addressing provincial labour-market constraints.