The Impact of Demographic Dynamics on Household Saving in Pre-COVID-19 South Africa

Authors

  • Afamefuna Emmanuel Nwogbo University of Johannesburg
  • Joel Hinaunye Eita University of Johannesburg
  • Sivan Chetty University of Johannesburg

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26493/1854-6935.23.121-146

Keywords:

demographics, working age population, aged/elderly population, life-cycle hypothesis, household saving, panel ARDL, Dumitrescu- Hurlin panel causality

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of demographic dynamics on household saving in pre-COVID-19 South Africa, across all nine provinces of South Africa. The study used panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) and Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality methods. The results revealed a longrun relationship between demographic dynamics and household saving in South Africa, showing that the White working age population had a significant effect on South Africa’s household saving in both the long-run and short-run, while the Black and Coloured working age population groups significantly impacted household saving only in the long-run. However, the Asian/Indian working age population had no effect on household saving in either the long run or short run. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality analysis revealed a bidirectional causality running between Asian/Indian, Black, and Coloured population groups and household saving, while a unidirectional causality was found running from the White population
group to household saving.

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Published

30.06.2025

Issue

Section

Articles